Do u enjoy trading??

Oil traders never stop talking to each other.

The most popular software among oil traders is not an oil trading package or even a news service such as Reuters - it is Yahoo Instant Messenger.

"Trading oil is about getting information and knowing where the market is," says Eivind Lie who runs the trading desk at the Norwegian oil company StatoilHydro's offices in London.

"So being a trader your life is pretty much either on Yahoo or on the telephone trying to get an overview of the market."

Keeping in touch

While people trading shares or currencies can get a lot of their information from analysts' notes and computerised trading systems, the oil trader still relies on chatting to a wide range of people, ranging from other traders to specialist oil trading journalists, to try to find out what is going on in the world.

Everything from war or natural disasters to more mundane events such as seasonal changes to temperatures or elections can affect oil prices, so for the traders it pays to be informed.

Richard Wickham, one of the crude oil traders at Statoil, makes his first call to the office on the way to the station after he has dropped his children off at the nursery.

Then as soon as he gets to the office he will read price reports and messages from Statoil staff who have been trading in the US and Asia and talk to the London-based analyst.

After that, the less formal process of talking to people really gets going.

"Collating information is more than half the job," Mr Wickham says.

"Executing trades is almost small in comparison - if you don't have the information you're blind," he says, staring at the four computer screens on his desk, which display a bewildering array of graphs, figures, reports and message windows.

There is little else on the desk besides family photographs and a strategically-placed Norwegian dictionary, for when he is trying to understand messages from the company's head office in Stavanger.

Distressed cargoes

Statoil is one of the world's largest exporters of oil and, with oil topping $100 a barrel on supply concerns, its products are in great demand.

Yet it has a relatively small trading desk in London, with just a handful of traders.

"If it's a weak market then we have to go out and sell it more actively, if it's a strong market they come and buy it from us," Mr Lie says.

Currently, demand is strong, though the traders are nevertheless on the phone, talking to other traders, analysts and brokers.

Everyone in the market for physical oil - as opposed to paper market traders, who do not want to end up owning any oil - is looking for that precious piece of information that will allow them to sell oil for more, or buy it for less.

"From our side, as the seller of oil, we want to get to know the buyer's position," Mr Lie says.

"Are they short of oil, do they really need more?"

The holy grail for buyers is to find a seller having difficulty selling a shipment.

"If you get too close to the delivery date, when it's taken aboard a ship in the North Sea, and it's not sold, then the buyers know that we have what's called a 'distressed cargo', so they will try to get a cheap price for that," he adds.

Volatile market

It may be a good time to be a seller of oil, but the way oil is traded means it can still be nerve-wracking.

"There are a lot of market price contracts where I would sell you oil today, but we price it the day the ship loads, which might be in three of four weeks time," says Sally Clubley, an independent oil consultant who trains oil traders.

"So we've done the deal today, but we don't know the price today and there's a lot of oil traded on that basis."

The trader's life is also made trickier by the volatility in the market, which has seen prices rise and fall by several dollars a barrel in a day.

"Over the last two or three years we've seen a huge increase in volatility and that's probably due to moving more from a physical group of companies trading to a financial-based scenario," he says.

"It's the momentum of these big hedge funds and financial institutions, which makes the market move by percentage points rather than the 30 or 40 cents you used to get three or four years ago."

Those sudden, big movements make it difficult for traders to be off-duty.

"You can never leave your position, even if technically you've left it, ie you've gone home," Ms Clubley says.

"It really is a 24-hour job because they don't trust anybody else with it."

Mr Lie agrees.

"I think some of the traders always carry their phones, even on vacations," he says.

"It's a lifestyle more than a job so you have to enjoy it."

Europe faces $2trln debt refinancing challenge

Europe faces $2trln debt refinancing challenge-S&P

2008-11-11 00:16 UTC (GMT)

By Natalie Harrison LONDON, Nov 11 (Reuters) - Some $2.1 trillion of European company and bank debt matures in the next three years, raising 'substantial refinancing risk', Standard & Poor's said on Tuesday. With new bond issues at a virtual standstill after the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, fears have intensified that companies will be unable to raise fresh debt to pay off maturing bonds, potentially pushing them into default. 'Funding pressures in Europe have escalated sharply since September as stress in the global financial system accelerated,' S&P analysts said in a note. 'Given the soaring cost of capital the sizeable pipeline of debt coming due suggests substantial refinancing risk.' The credit-ratings agency said euro-denominated senior bank debt was being offered at spreads near 225 basis points over swaps, almost 10 times wider than levels before August 2007. The financial sector makes up 72 percent of maturing debt over the next three years rated by S&P -- but recent government rescue packages should help mitigate those refinancing pressures, S&P said. Just in the remainder of 2008, $206 billion of European debt will mature, including $181 billion in the financial sector. Within non-financials, capital-intensive sectors such as telecommunications and utilities have around $113 billion and $79 billion worth of debt respectively due to mature in 2009 through to the end of 2011, S&P said. In the fourth quarter, those sectors face an additional $8.6 and $4.1 billion respectively of maturing debt. Other sectors with the heaviest redemption profiles include healthcare at $48 billion; metals, mining and steel at $32 billion; and transportation at $28 billion. 'The vast majority of debt (90 percent) maturing in Europe is investment grade, which traditionally would temper refunding risk, but poses greater challenges than normal in the current environment,' S&P said. The biggest refunding risks come in 2009, when $801 billion of debt matures, split between $576.8 billion of financial debt and $172.6 billion of non-financial debt, the vast majority of which is investment-grade. Another $51.6 billion of debt matures in 2009 that is not rated by S&P. GERMANY MOST EXPOSED TO FINANCIALS Germany has the most maturing financial debt in 2009 to 2011 at 40 percent of the total, largely due to its exceptionally large covered bond market. Covered bonds are backed by assets that remain on the borrower's balance sheet and are therefore perceived as less risky. But even this market has suffered in the deepening credit crisis with scant new issues and wider spreads. After Germany, Sweden, the Netherlands, France, Italy, Spain and the United Kingdom have the most financial debt maturing. Together, they account for about 85 percent of total financial exposure in Europe, S&P said. For non-financial debt maturing in 2009 to 2011, France is most exposed at 26 percent, followed by the United Kingdom, Germany, the Netherlands and Italy. The five make up about 80 percent of total exposure. Following is a table, based on data from S&P as at Oct. 22, on bond refinancings due in Europe from now until end-2011.

Aussie dollar slips on slowdown worry; bonds surge

Aussie dollar slips on slowdown worry; bonds surge

2008-11-11 05:55 UTC (GMT)

SYDNEY, Nov 11 (Reuters) - The Australian dollar eased onTuesday, hurt by a revival in risk aversion amid renewedpessimism about the global economy, prompting investors to steer away from other riskier assets like stocks and commodities. A private sector business survey added to a gloomy picturefor the Australian economy with the latest inflation data from China also confirming that the world's fourth-largest economy was cooling. Those worries along with concerns about the future of big American corporates like General Motors, whose shares dived to a 62-year low on Monday, saw investors move to the safety of low-yielding currencies and government bonds.Stocks, commodities and higher- yielding currencies hadreceived a boost on Monday after China announced a huge fiscalstimulus package worth almost $600 billion at the weekend. 'The bleak string of headlines in the U.S. caused risk aversion to rear its head and spur a sell-off in the Aussie,'said Besa Deda, chief economist at St George. 'We continue to think that any rally in the near term in the Aussie up near the $0.7000 remains a sell and we continue to look for a weaker Aussie closer to $0.6000 by the end of this year.' By 4:15 p.m. (0515 GMT), the Aussie was at $ 0.6719 against the U.S. dollar, down from $0.6866 late here on Monday. It rose as high as $0.6985 on Monday, not far from a peak of $0.7015 struck on Nov. 4. Lower regional stock markets pulled the Aussie down to 65.86 yen, from 67.93 yen, as demand for leveraged carry trades took a hit. Commodities also took a battering with the rally in base metals running out of steam as concerns of a global recession returned. Australia is a big exporter of commodities and the recent slide in natural resources has been a factor in the Aussie's decline from 25-year peaks hit in mid-July. Australian bond futures rallied on safe-haven inflows while December bill futures rose on expectations of aggressive interest-rate cuts next month.The central bank cut its cash rate by a larger than expected 75 basis points to 5.25 percent last week, after a 100 basis point cut in October. Markets are pricing in chances of a nearly 100-point cut next month as the RBA tries to cushion the economyfrom the adverse impact of a credit crunch.Three-year bond futures jumped 0.195 points higher at 96.00 , while the 10-year futures contract surged 0.155 points to 94.96.

SnapShot - Financial Crisis

SNAPSHOT - Financial Crisis - 0430 GMT

2008-11-11 04:43 UTC (GMT)

NEWS - China inflation falls to 17-month low of 4 pct, further evidence of slowing growth - British retail sales fall for a 5th month in Oct; business confidence in Australia at record lows. - Fannie Mae says may have to tap government for cash to avoid shutting down after reporting record $29 billion loss - AIG bailout raised to $150 billion government lifeline after it posts third-quarter net loss of $24.47 billion - Fitch cuts Romania credit rating to 'junk,' downgrades Bulgaria, Kazakhstan, Hungary, says global crisis puts ratings of South Korea, South Africa, Russia, Mexico in jeopardy MARKETS - Asian stocks fall on souring economic outlook; the MSCI Asia ex-Japan down 3.1 percent, Nikkei sheds 3.3 percent - U.S. dollar, euro dip against the yen - U.S. crude oil lower at $60.73 barrel QUOTES 'It appears that the continuing volatility in global equity markets, emergency financial packages, falling commodity prices, and talk of global recession have finally broken business optimism and now fear reigns supreme.' - Alan Oster, group chief economist at NAB. 'These are seriously poor numbers, especially in the run-up to Christmas.'- Stephen Robertson, director general of the British Retail Consortium on British retail sales. 'It shows the Chinese economy is in a sharp slowdown -- production is falling, so is demand.' - Zhang Yongjun, an economist with a government think-tank in Beijing on inflation data. 'The alliance between Britain and the U.S. -- and more broadly between Europe and the U.S. -- can and must provide leadership, not in order to make the rules ourselves, but to lead the global effort to build a stronger and more just international order.' - British Prime Minister Gordon Brown in in London speech.

OIl Range 3rd Nov 08 to 7th Nov 08.

After a interesting rally last week with the thrills and spills of a Indy 500 race , 3 attempts to drive it to the US $60 mark as predicted but was unable to do , with cutback on oil production
had minimal effect effect on the price of oil.

The Demand has begun to soften no doubt, due lack of demand for the lot of industrial goods.
A good indicator is the current price of Steel that has a over- supply and the price is being pressured downwards.Production has begun cutting back.The new mantra will be prudence.

For traders this week, we would see an attempt to break up wards towards the US$70 area for technical but will be face with stiff resistance to break ,but this week trade by the looks , it will be traded around this level. Strong resistance for downwards is at Us$65 level, and a resistance at Us$ 70.00 upwards.

But on mid term outlook I would still stick to my trading range of US $60 /$85.00.

This Week trading level :

Mood : Upward pressure.
High - US$ 70
Low - US$ 65

Previous Session Overview

European currencies were making a comeback against the dollar early Thursday in New York as rising global stock markets and a general improvement in risk appetite make the higher-yielders attractive again.

The euro hit a high of USD1.3300 overnight; it's highest in more than a week, and about 10 U.S. cents up from a more than two year low of USD1.2329 it had plunged to on Tuesday.

The greenback has been able to recover some of its losses, however, after a report Thursday morning on third quarter U.S. gross domestic product that showed the economy contracted. The 0.3% fall wasn't as bad as the 0.5% decline that economists expected.

The dollar is advancing against the yen Thu morning as risk sentiment begins to heal. The latest initial jobless claims were better than many economists had expected.

Thursday morning New York, the euro was at USD1.3032 from USD1.2934 late Wednesday, while the dollar was at JPY98.39 from JPY97.22. The euro was at JPY128.17 from JPY125.70. The U.K. pound was at USD1.6451 from USD1.6347 and the dollar was at CHF1.1328 from CHF1.1324 Wednesday.

Market Expectations

Slide to USD1.2960 area brings chatter of mixed names selling, some option-related ahead of the option expiry hour, but certainly no chatter of hefty volumes. On the day, some mention has been made of official name euro sales but at higher levels, and not in amounts that would be considered significant or of a signaling nature. Overnight lows at USD1.2943 in sight, not much order talk around but could there be risk of stops from frustrated longs, if they haven't already bailed?

USDCHF is expected to move lower, after a recent break below 1.1490. The trend is now neutral, would change to negative were the pair to fall below 1.1250.

While the reduction in risk aversion is hurting the dollar against most currencies, the greenback is rising against the yen. Investors tend to sell the low-yielding yen when risk sentiment improves so they can buy higher-yielding assets.

The dollar move since the data has weighed on cable, as it declines in line with euro-dollar. Traders note system accounts selling in both pairs. Cable tested the intraday bids at USD1.6450, said to extend to USD1.6425 with stops also mixed in. Below the market stronger interest and further stops tipped at USD1.6350.

Wednesday Forex outlook

On Tuesday, the dollar rose sharply against the yen after U.S. stock markets shot higher and on speculation the Bank of Japan may cut interest rates at a Friday meeting.

The euro continued to trade range bound against the US dollar and other major currencies. GFK German Consumer Sentiment unexpectedly jumped to 1.9 vs. 1.5 expected and the German Stock market surged 11%. EURUSD traded with a low of 1.2331 and a high of 1.2791 before closing the day at 1.2520.

The British pound gained more than 2 percent against the greenback on Tuesday, though the bulk of the move came in the afternoon as a surge in the US stock markets signaled a broad rise in demand for "risky" assets like carry trades. GBPUSD traded with a low of 1.5405 and a high of 1.6060 before closing the day at 1.6020.

The Japanese yen fell off recent 13-year highs against the US dollar on Tuesday as stock markets rebounded. The yen dropped by 11 percent to 63.21 versus the Australian dollar and 9.9 percent to 55.19 versus the New Zealand dollar.

The Canadian dollar had a slight rebound against the US dollar after falling to its lowest level in more than four years as uncertainty about the global economy weighed on the commodity-linked currency.

An overnight surge on Wall Street raised spirits in Asia Wednesday and helped the wheezing Australian dollar off its knees, though few expect the better mood to hold.